Two in a Row

Expected Value
Coin Stopping Times
Medium
Paul repeatedly flips a fair coin until he obtains two consecutive equal outcomes, either or . What is the expected number of flips?
Hint 1

After the first flip, think about what happens on each subsequent flip relative to the previous one.

Hint 2

Every flip after the first independently matches the previous flip with probability , so the number of extra flips needed is geometric.

Show worked solution
  1. 1. Reduce to a geometric wait

    The first flip is free. Every flip after that matches the immediately preceding flip with probability , independent of history, and the process stops the first time a match occurs.

  2. 2. Compute the expectation

    Let be the number of flips after the first, which is geometric with success probability , so .

Answer: 3

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