Question library
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The Birthday Collision
Assuming equally likely birthdays, what is the smallest group size for which a shared birthday is more likely than not?
Birthday Problem
Three Heads Before Three Tails
A fair coin is tossed until either three consecutive heads or three consecutive tails appear. What is the probability heads wins?
Coins
Balanced Committee
From 6 women and 5 men, how many 4-person committees contain exactly 2 women?
Committees
Precision of the Mean
A population has variance . For a random sample of independent observations, what is the standard error of the sample mean?
Estimation
Two Heads in Three Flips
A fair coin is flipped three times. What is the probability of getting exactly two heads?
Coins
At Least One Six
A fair six-sided die is rolled four times. What is the probability of seeing at least one 6?
Dice
Sum of Eight
+ 1 follow-upTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that their sum is 8?
Dice
Matching Ranks
Two cards are drawn without replacement from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that they have the same rank?
Cards
Even Prime Sum
Two distinct prime numbers are chosen uniformly from the primes between 1 and 20 inclusive. What is the probability that their sum is even?
Number Theory
Two Winning Trades
Each trade independently makes money with probability 0.4. What is the probability that exactly two out of five trades make money?
Binomial
No Correct Letter
Four letters are randomly placed into four addressed envelopes, one letter per envelope. What is the probability that no letter reaches the correct recipient?
Permutations
Two Red Balls
A bag contains 3 red balls and 7 blue balls. Five balls are chosen without replacement. What is the probability of selecting exactly two red balls?
Sampling Without Replacement
Rolling Doubles
+ 1 follow-upTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability of rolling doubles?
Dice
Boxes With Minimums
15 identical balls are distributed among 5 labeled boxes. Each box must contain at least 2 balls. How many distributions are possible?
Stars and Bars
Four Boxes, Min Three
+ 1 follow-up20 identical balls are distributed among 4 labeled boxes. Each box must contain at least 3 balls. How many distributions are possible?
Stars and Bars
Non-Adjacent Books
Five distinct books are placed on a shelf. Two particular books must not be adjacent. How many valid arrangements are there?
Arrangements
MISSISSIPPI Arrangements
How many distinct arrangements of the letters in MISSISSIPPI are possible?
Repeated Objects
Committee With Alice or Bob
A committee of 4 is selected from 10 people. Alice and Bob are two of the ten people. How many committees contain at least one of Alice or Bob?
Committees
Round Table Seating
+ 2 follow-upsEight distinct people sit around a circular table. Rotations are considered identical. How many seating arrangements are possible?
Circular Permutations
Bounded Integer Solutions
How many integer solutions satisfy with , , ?
Integer Solutions
Max Below a Threshold
, , and are independent random variables. What is the probability that their maximum is less than ?
Maximum
Sum of Independent Normals
and are independent. What is the distribution of ?
Normal Distribution
Two Boxes of Balls
You choose one of two boxes uniformly. Box A contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box B contains 1 red ball and 2 blue balls. You draw a red ball. What is the probability that you chose Box A?
Bayes
First Ace to Appear
A standard deck is shuffled. Among the four aces, which ace is most likely to appear first?
Cards
Dice Sum Conditional
Two fair six-sided dice are rolled. Given that their sum is 8, what is the probability that at least one die shows 5?
Dice
Monty Hall Switch
In the standard three-door Monty Hall problem, you initially choose one door. The host, who knows where the prize is, opens a losing door and offers you the opportunity to switch. What is your probability of winning if you switch?
Monty Hall
Symmetric Walk Mean
+ 1 follow-upA symmetric random walk starts at . Each step is independently or with equal probability. What is the expected position after steps?
Random Walk
Waiting for Sixes
+ 1 follow-upWhat is the expected number of rolls of a fair six-sided die until the first appears?
Waiting Times
Binary Payout Fair Value
A contract pays with probability 0.6 and otherwise. Assume zero interest rates and a risk-neutral setting. What is its fair value?
Markets · Fair Value
Uninformed Spread Profit
The true fair value of an asset is 100. A market maker quotes 99 bid and 101 ask. An uninformed trader is equally likely to buy at the ask or sell at the bid. Ignoring inventory risk, what is the market maker's expected profit per trade?
Market Making · Spread
Annualized Sharpe Ratio
A strategy has an average daily return divided by daily return volatility equal to 0.10. Assuming independent identically distributed daily returns and 252 trading days per year, what is the annualized Sharpe ratio?
Risk · Sharpe Ratio
Duration Price Sensitivity
A bond has modified duration 5. Interest rates increase by 20 basis points. Using the duration approximation, approximately what percentage change should occur in the bond price?
Fixed Income · Duration
Delta-Neutral Share Count
You are long 100 call option contracts. Each contract represents 100 shares and each option has delta 0.60. How many shares should you trade to become delta-neutral?
Options · Delta Hedging
No Consecutive Heads
+ 1 follow-upA fair coin is flipped five times. What is the probability that no two heads occur consecutively?
Coins
Relative Order
Eight distinct people stand in a uniformly random order. What is the probability that Alice appears before Bob and Bob appears before Charlie?
Random Permutations
Equal Team Allocation
Twelve distinct people are assigned to three labeled teams, with exactly four people on each team. How many assignments are possible?
Multinomial Counting
Adjacent Equal Coin Flips
A fair coin is flipped 20 times. Let be the number of adjacent pairs of flips that are equal. For example, flips 7 and 8 form one adjacent pair. Find .
Indicator Variables
Small Triangle in the Unit Square
and are independent random variables. What is ?
Geometric Probability
Population Regression Coefficient
+ 1 follow-upSuppose and . What is the population least-squares slope when regressing on ?
Linear Regression
Eigenvalues of a Symmetric 2x2 Matrix
Find the eigenvalues of the matrix .
Linear Algebra
Rank of an Outer Product
Let and be nonzero vectors. What is the rank of the matrix ?
Linear Algebra
Minimum Norm Under a Linear Constraint
Minimize subject to .
Optimization
Superposition of Two Poisson Processes
Two independent Poisson processes have rates and . What is the distribution of their combined arrival process?
Poisson Processes
Forward Price With a Dividend Yield
A stock trades at . The continuously compounded risk-free rate is and the stock pays a continuous dividend yield of . What is the no-arbitrage one-year forward price?
Forwards
Compounded Two-Period Return
+ 1 follow-upA stock moves from to , then from to . What is the total simple return over the two periods?
Returns
Worst-Case Binary Search Comparisons
A sorted array contains 1000 distinct values. Using binary search, what is the maximum number of midpoint comparisons needed to determine whether a target value is present?
Search
Three Heads in Four Flips
A fair coin is flipped four times. What is the probability of obtaining exactly three heads?
Coins
At Least One Six in Three Rolls
A fair six-sided die is rolled three times. What is the probability that at least one roll is a 6?
Dice
Dice Sum of Nine
Two fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that their sum is 9?
Dice
Matching Parity of Two Dice
Two fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the probability that both results have the same parity?
Dice
Waiting More Than Five Flips
A fair coin is flipped until the first head appears. What is the probability that more than five flips are required?
Geometric Distribution
First Head on Flip Four
A coin lands heads with probability 0.3 on each flip. What is the probability that the first head occurs on flip 4?
Geometric Distribution
Divisible by Two or Five
An integer is selected uniformly at random from . What is the probability that it is divisible by 2 or 5?
Number Theory
Relative Order of Three Objects
A uniformly random permutation of six distinct objects is generated. What is the probability that object A occurs before object B and object B occurs before object C?
Random Permutations
Which Variable Is Largest
X, Y and Z are independent, identically distributed continuous random variables. What is the probability that X is the largest of the three?
Order Statistics
Repeated Digit in a Random Code
A five-digit code is generated by independently selecting each digit uniformly from 0 through 9. What is the probability that at least one digit is repeated?
Combinatorial Probability
Exactly Two Red Balls
A bag contains 4 red and 6 blue balls. Three balls are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that exactly two are red?
Hypergeometric Distribution
Committees of Three
How many committees of 3 can be chosen from 8 distinct people?
Combinations
Arranging Seven Books
How many ways can seven distinct books be arranged on a shelf?
Permutations
Circular Table for Six
Six distinct people sit around a circular table. Rotations are considered identical. How many seatings exist?
Circular Permutations
Seven in a Line, Adjacent
Seven people stand in a line. How many arrangements have two particular people, Alice and Bob, standing adjacent?
Permutations
Arrangements of BANANA
How many distinct arrangements of the letters in the word BANANA exist?
Multiset Permutations
Balls Into Boxes, Empty Allowed
Ten identical balls are distributed among four labeled boxes, with empty boxes allowed. How many allocations exist?
Stars and Bars
Balls Into Boxes, None Empty
Ten identical balls are distributed among four labeled boxes, with every box receiving at least one ball. How many allocations exist?
Stars and Bars
Five-Digit Codes, No Repeats
How many length-5 codes can be made from digits 0 through 9 if no digit may repeat and a leading zero is allowed?
Permutations
Lattice Paths to (5,3)
How many lattice paths travel from to using only right and up moves?
Lattice Paths
Expected Heads in Twenty Flips
A fair coin is flipped 20 times. What is the expected number of heads?
Linearity
Expected Heads with a Biased Coin
A coin has head probability 0.3 and is flipped 50 times. What is the expected number of heads?
Linearity
Expected Sum of Ten Dice
Ten fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the expected sum?
Linearity
Waiting for a Rare Success
A Bernoulli trial succeeds with probability 0.2. What is the expected number of trials until the first success?
Geometric Distribution
Random Walk Mean After Twenty Steps
A symmetric +/-1 random walk starts at 0. What is its expected position after 20 steps?
Random Walk
Expected Failures Before Success
Independent Bernoulli trials succeed with probability 1/4. What is the expected number of failures before the first success?
Geometric Distribution
Sum of Two Independent Normals
and are independent. What is the distribution of ?
Normal Distribution
Linear Transformation of a Normal
. What is the distribution of ?
Normal Distribution
MLE of a Bernoulli Parameter
A Bernoulli sample contains successes in observations. What is the maximum-likelihood estimator of ?
Maximum Likelihood
MLE of a Normal Mean
are independent observations with known. What is the maximum-likelihood estimator of ?
Maximum Likelihood
Variance of the Sample Mean
are independent with variance . What is for observations?
Sampling Distributions
Large-Sample Distribution of the Sample Mean
A population has mean and variance . State the approximate large- distribution of the sample mean.
Central Limit Theorem
Posterior Mean of a Beta Distribution
Using the posterior , what is the posterior mean?
Bayesian Inference
Mean and Variance of a Poisson
If , state its mean and variance.
Discrete Distributions
Mean and Variance of an Exponential
If , state its mean and variance.
Continuous Distributions
Mean of a Geometric Waiting Time
For a geometric random variable counting trials until the first success with probability , what is the expected value?
Discrete Distributions
Mean of a Uniform Distribution
. Find .
Continuous Distributions
Variance of a Uniform Distribution
. Find .
Continuous Distributions
Marginal Distribution of Brownian Motion
For standard Brownian motion with , what is the distribution of ?
Brownian Motion
Distribution of a Brownian Increment
For standard Brownian motion, what is the distribution of ?
Brownian Motion
Covariance of Two Brownian Times
For standard Brownian motion, find .
Brownian Motion
Symmetry of Brownian Motion
For standard Brownian motion, what is ?
Brownian Motion
Second Moment of Brownian Motion
For standard Brownian motion, find .
Brownian Motion
Poisson Process Counts
A counting process is a Poisson process with rate . What is the distribution of ?
Poisson Process
Interarrival Times of a Poisson Process
For a Poisson process with rate , what is the distribution of the time between consecutive arrivals?
Poisson Process
Superposition of Two Rate-Specific Poisson Processes
Two independent Poisson processes have rates and arrivals per hour. What is the rate of their superposition (the combined arrival process)?
Poisson Process
Expected Time to the nth Poisson Arrival
For a Poisson process with rate , what is the expected waiting time until the th arrival?
Poisson Process
Forward Price With Cost of Carry
A stock trades at . The continuously compounded risk-free rate is , the continuous dividend yield is , and maturity is one year. Find the no-arbitrage forward price.
Forwards
Duration-Only Price Sensitivity, Second Instance
A bond has modified duration 6. Yields rise 25 basis points. Approximate the percentage price change using duration only.
Fixed Income · Duration
Continuously Compounded Zero-Coupon Bond Price
A zero-coupon bond pays 100 in two years. The continuously compounded risk-free rate is 5%. Find its price.
Fixed Income
Expected P&L of a Two-Outcome Strategy
A strategy earns +4 with probability 0.4 and loses 2 otherwise. Find the expected P&L per trade.
Trading
Uninformed Spread Profit, Second Instance
True fair value is 100. A market maker quotes 99.80/100.20. An uninformed customer is equally likely to buy or sell. Ignoring inventory risk, what is expected maker profit per trade?
Market Making · Spread
One-Day Value at Risk, Second Instance
Daily P&L is normally distributed with zero mean and $1.5 million standard deviation. Using , estimate the one-day 99% VaR.
Risk · Value at Risk
Delta-Neutral Share Count, Second Instance
A call has delta 0.35. You are long 200 contracts, each representing 100 shares. How many shares should be traded to become delta-neutral?
Options · Delta Hedging
Eigenvalues of a Symmetric 2x2 Matrix
Find the eigenvalues of the matrix .
Eigenvalues
Trace From Eigenvalues
A matrix has eigenvalues , , and . What is its trace?
Eigenvalues
Determinant From Eigenvalues
A matrix has eigenvalues , , and . What is its determinant?
Eigenvalues
Condition for Orthogonal Vectors
What condition characterizes orthogonality of two vectors and ?
Inner Products
Minimizing Sum of Squares Under a Linear Constraint
Minimize subject to .
Optimization
Maximizing a Product Under a Sum Constraint
Maximize subject to and .
Optimization
Normal Equations for Ordinary Least Squares
State the normal equations for ordinary least squares.
Least Squares
Eigenvalues of a Triangular Matrix
What are the eigenvalues of an upper triangular matrix?
Eigenvalues
Determinant of a Triangular Matrix
What is the determinant of a triangular matrix?
Determinants
Rank-Nullity for a Map From R^7
A linear map from has rank . What is its nullity?
Rank-Nullity Theorem
Inverse of an Orthogonal Matrix
If is an orthogonal matrix, what is ?
Orthogonal Matrices
Binary Search Comparisons for 1024 Elements
A target is known to be present in a sorted array of 1024 distinct elements. What is the minimum worst-case number of yes/no comparisons required to identify its position?
Search
Time Complexity of Merge Sort
What is the asymptotic time complexity of merge sort?
Sorting
Two-Sum With a Hash Set
What is the time complexity of finding whether a target pair summing to a given value exists using a hash set?
Hashing
Solving T(n) = T(n/2) + 1
Solve .
Recurrences
Solving T(n) = T(n-1) + 1
Solve .
Recurrences
Maximum Nodes in a Binary Tree of Bounded Depth
A binary tree has root depth 0 and maximum depth d. What is the maximum possible number of nodes?
Trees
Binary Heap Insertion Complexity
What is the worst-case time complexity of inserting an element into a binary heap?
Heaps
Shortest Paths in an Unweighted Graph
What algorithm finds shortest paths from a source in an unweighted graph?
Graph Traversal
Edge Weight Requirement for Dijkstra's Algorithm
What restriction on edge weights is required by standard Dijkstra's algorithm?
Shortest Paths
Existence of a Topological Ordering
When does a directed graph admit a topological ordering?
Graph Theory
Guaranteed Repeats by the Pigeonhole Principle
An array of n+1 integers contains values only from {1,...,n}. What principle guarantees at least one repeated value?
Combinatorial Reasoning
Expected Hash Table Lookup Complexity
What is the asymptotic expected lookup complexity of a well-designed hash table under standard assumptions?
Hashing
Maximum Edges in a Simple Graph
What is the worst-case number of edges in a simple undirected graph with n vertices?
Graph Theory
Identifying a Tree by Edge Count
A connected undirected graph contains n vertices and exactly n-1 edges. What structure must it be?
Graph Theory
Midpoint and Spread of a Quote
A dealer quotes bid and ask. What are the midpoint and the full spread?
Quotes and Spreads
Recovering the Ask
The bid is and the full spread is . What is the ask?
Quotes and Spreads
Round Trip Through the Spread
You buy shares at the bid of and immediately resell them at the ask of . Ignoring costs, what is your P&L?
P&L
Inventory After a Customer Buy
A customer buys units from you at your quote. What is the change in your inventory?
Inventory
Covering Part of a Short
You are short shares. A customer sells you shares. What is your new position?
Inventory
Spread in Basis Points
A dealer posts . Express the full spread in basis points of the midpoint.
Quotes and Spreads
Two Customers, Both Sides
Your fair value is and your quote is . One customer buys units and another sells units. What is your combined gross P&L relative to fair value?
P&L
Picked Off on a Stale Quote
Fair value rises from to while your quote stays at . A customer buys units at your stale ask. Marking to the new fair value, what is your P&L?
Adverse Selection
Realized P&L on a Round Trip
A dealer buys units at , then sells them at . Find the realized P&L.
P&L
Half-Spread in Basis Points
At bid/ask , what is the half-spread, in price units and in basis points of the midpoint?
Quotes and Spreads
Three Switches, One Visit
Three switches outside a closed room control three incandescent bulbs inside. You may enter the room exactly once. How do you identify which switch controls each bulb?
Logic Puzzles
Eight Balls, One Heavy
Eight identical-looking balls include one heavier ball. Using a balance scale, what is the minimum number of weighings that guarantees finding the heavy ball?
Weighing
Burning Ropes for 45 Minutes
Two ropes each burn completely in exactly minutes, but at irregular rates. How can you measure exactly minutes?
Timing Puzzles
Four Liters From 3 and 5
You have an unmarked -liter jug and an unmarked -liter jug, unlimited water, and may empty either jug. Measure exactly liters.
Jug Puzzles
Snail in a Well
A snail climbs meters each day and slides down meters each night. On which day does it leave a -meter well?
Classic Puzzles
Clock Angle at 3:15
At , what is the smaller angle between the hands of an analog clock, in degrees?
Clocks
Machines and Widgets
Five identical machines make five widgets in five minutes. How long do machines need to make widgets, in minutes?
Rates
Bat and Ball
A bat and a ball cost $1.10 together. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost, in dollars?
Classic Puzzles
Three Sandwiches, Two Fathers, Two Sons
Two fathers and two sons share exactly three sandwiches so that each gets one whole sandwich. How is this possible?
Logic Puzzles
Doubling Lily Pads
A lily patch doubles its area each day and covers the entire pond on day . On which day was the pond half covered?
Exponential Growth
Even Roll
A fair six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of an even result?
Dice
Three Heads in Four Flips
A fair coin is flipped four times. What is the probability of exactly three heads?
Coins
Two Dice Summing to Seven
Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum is ?
Dice
Two Aces
Two cards are drawn without replacement from a standard -card deck. What is the probability both are aces?
Cards
Choosing Three of Ten
How many ways are there to choose people from ?
Combinations
Books on a Shelf
How many ways can distinct books be arranged on a shelf?
Permutations
Mean of Four Numbers
Find the mean of .
Descriptive Statistics
Variance of a Coin Indicator
A fair coin is coded for heads, for tails. Find the variance.
Bernoulli
19 Times 21
Compute mentally.
Mental Math
Fifteen Percent of 240
Compute of .
Mental Math
48 Squared
Compute .
Mental Math
One Eighth as a Percent
Express as a percentage.
Mental Math
Long Call Profit
A long European call has strike and premium . The underlying expires at . What is the net profit per share?
Option Payoffs
Long Put Profit
A long European put has strike and premium . The underlying expires at . What is the net profit per share?
Option Payoffs
Maximum of Three
If are independent variables, what is ?
Order Statistics
More Heads Than Tails
A fair coin is flipped 10 times. What is the probability of observing more heads than tails?
Coins
First Ace at Card 14
A shuffled standard deck is revealed one card at a time. What is the probability that the first ace appears exactly as card 14?
Cards
Fixed Points of a Permutation
+ 1 follow-upA random permutation of n distinct objects is chosen uniformly. What is the expected number of objects that remain in their original positions?
Random Permutations
Birthday Coincidence
Assuming 365 equally likely birthdays and ignoring leap years, what is the probability that at least two people in a group of 23 share a birthday?
Birthday Problem
Even Rolls Until Six
+ 1 follow-upDan repeatedly rolls a fair six-sided die until he gets a 6. Given that every roll he observed was even, what is the expected total number of rolls?
Conditional Probability
Higher Card Wins
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Cards
Restricted Team Formation
Ten employees must be divided into three teams: 3 Quant Researchers, 4 Quant Traders, and 3 Quant Developers. Two specific employees cannot be assigned to Quant Research. How many valid team assignments are possible?
Team Formation
Non-Adjacent Ones
How many binary strings of length 10 contain exactly four 1s with no two 1s adjacent?
Binary Strings
Two-Ace Hands
How many 5-card poker hands contain exactly two aces?
Cards
Even Face Distribution
A fair six-sided die is rolled 36 times. What is the probability that every face appears exactly six times?
Multinomial
Unlabeled Team Split
Twelve distinct people are divided into three unlabeled teams of four. How many different divisions are possible?
Team Formation
Alternating Seating
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Circular Arrangements
Lattice Path Count
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Lattice Paths
Straight But Not Flush
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Poker
Ratio of Uniforms
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Uniform Distribution
Median of Three Uniforms
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Order Statistics
Expected Max of Two Dice
Two fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the expected value of the maximum?
Dice
Expected Min of Two Dice
+ 1 follow-upTwo fair six-sided dice are rolled. What is the expected value of the minimum?
Dice
Extremes of n Uniforms
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Continuous Order Statistics
Minimum of Exponentials
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Exponential Distribution
Race of Two Exponentials
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Exponential Distribution
Covariance With a Sum
+ 1 follow-upand are independent with and . Find .
Covariance
Inverse Transform Sampling
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Inverse Transform
Broken Stick Triangle
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Geometric Probability
Diagnostic Test Bayes
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Bayes' Theorem
Fair Coin or Two-Headed
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Bayesian Updating
Urn Conditional Draw
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Urns
Face Card Color
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Cards
Two in a Row
+ 1 follow-upPaul repeatedly flips a fair coin until he obtains two consecutive equal outcomes, either or . What is the expected number of flips?
Coin Stopping Times
Collecting All Faces
+ 1 follow-upA fair six-sided die is rolled repeatedly. What is the expected number of rolls required to observe all six faces at least once?
Coupon Collector
Occupied Boxes
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Occupancy
Landing at Plus Two
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Random Walk
Stable Round Table
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Geometric Probability
Reroll or Keep
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Optimal Rerolling
Inversions in Shuffles
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Random Permutations
Even Die, Even Sum
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Independence
Silent Half Hour
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Poisson Distribution
Memoryless Wait
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Exponential Memorylessness
Correlated Sum Variance
+ 1 follow-upand both have variance 1 and correlation . What is ?
Correlation
One-Period Call Value
+ 2 follow-upsA stock is currently worth 100. After one period it will be either 110 with probability 1/2 or 90 with probability 1/2. Assume zero interest rates. A European call has strike 100. What is its value under this one-period risk-neutral model?
Options · Binomial Pricing
Broken Put-Call Parity
+ 2 follow-upsAssume zero interest rates. , , European call price , European put price . Does put-call parity hold?
Options · Put-Call Parity
Two Million VaR
A portfolio's daily P&L is normally distributed with mean zero and standard deviation million. Using a one-sided 95% normal quantile of 1.645, what is the 95% one-day VaR?
Risk · Value at Risk
Beta-Neutral Futures Hedge
You hold a million portfolio with market beta 1.2. A futures contract provides of market exposure and has beta 1. Approximately how many futures contracts should you short to make the portfolio beta-neutral?
Hedging · Beta Hedge
Two-Asset Portfolio Volatility
+ 2 follow-upsA portfolio invests 50% in Asset A and 50% in Asset B. Both assets have annual volatility 20% and their correlation is 0.5. What is the portfolio's annual volatility?
Portfolio Theory · Correlation
Exactly One Ace
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Cards
Consecutive Values Become Neighbours
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Random Permutations
Every Room Occupied
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Occupancy
Non-Consecutive Selection
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Combinations
Three Different Suits
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Cards
Separation in a Line
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Random Permutations
Even Digits in a Code
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Counting
Which Coin Was Chosen?
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Bayes
Defective Product Source
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Bayes
Conditional Relative Ordering
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Permutations
Exactly One Ace Given At Least One
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Cards
Previous Draw Given Current Color
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Conditional Sampling
Waiting for HT
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Pattern Waiting Times
Birthday Collision Pairs
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Indicator Variables
Paying for a Reroll
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Optimal Decision
Waiting for Two Specific Faces
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Coupon Collection
Sum Before the First Six
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Recursion
Reinforced Urn
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Conditional Probability
Conditional Dice Maximum
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Conditional Probability
Conditional Geometric Time
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Geometric Distribution
Expected Gap Between Two Uniforms
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Continuous Uniform
Competing Exponentials
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Exponential Distribution
Poisson Thinning of Order Flow
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Poisson Process
Zero Covariance Without Independence
+ 1 follow-upLet . Find .
Dependence
Beta-Binomial Posterior Update
+ 1 follow-upA Bernoulli success probability has prior distribution . You observe 7 successes and 3 failures. What is the posterior distribution of ?
Bayesian Statistics
Positive Definiteness of a 2x2 Symmetric Matrix
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Linear Algebra
Orthogonal Projection onto a Line
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Linear Algebra
Eigenvalues From Trace and Determinant
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Linear Algebra
Cobb-Douglas Resource Allocation
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Optimization
Gradient of a Quadratic Form
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Linear Algebra
Covariance of Brownian Motion
For standard Brownian motion , what is ?
Brownian Motion
Expected Level of Geometric Brownian Motion
Suppose , with known. Find .
Geometric Brownian Motion
Two-State Markov Chain Stationary Distribution
A Markov chain has transition matrix . Find its stationary distribution.
Markov Chains
Lower Bound for a European Call
A non-dividend-paying stock has , strike , continuously compounded risk-free rate , and maturity year. What is the no-arbitrage lower bound for the price of a European call?
Arbitrage Bounds
Duration Plus Convexity Approximation
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Fixed Income
Minimum-Variance Hedge Ratio
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Hedging
Call Price From Put-Call Parity
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Put-Call Parity
Limits of Square-Root Sharpe Scaling
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Sharpe Ratio
Finding a Heavier Coin Among Nine
Among nine visually identical coins, exactly one is heavier than the rest. Using a balance scale, what is the minimum number of weighings needed to guarantee identifying the heavy coin?
Information / Search
Coin Flips Needed to Simulate a Fair Die
Using only independent fair coin flips, one method to simulate a fair six-sided die generates three bits, interprets them as an integer from to , accepts values through , and rejects or by repeating. What is the expected number of coin flips required per accepted die roll?
Randomness
Look-Ahead Bias in Backtesting
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Backtesting
Expected False Positives Under Multiple Testing
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Hypothesis Testing
Primary Effect of Severe Multicollinearity
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Regression
Why Shuffling Breaks Time-Series Cross-Validation
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Model Validation
Definition of Weak Covariance Stationarity
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Time Series
Why Selecting the Best Backtested Rule Overstates Performance
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Backtesting
Three Cards of the Same Suit
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Cards
Exactly Two Hearts in Five Cards
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Cards
First Ace at Position Ten
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Cards
Same Parity Without Replacement
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Combinatorial Probability
Doubles Given a Large Sum
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Conditional Probability
Three Possible Sources
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Bayes' Theorem
Truncated Geometric Distribution
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Geometric Distribution
Exactly One Red, Conditionally
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Conditional Probability
Uniform Inequality
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Continuous Distributions
Distance Between Two Uniforms
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Continuous Distributions
Median Below One Half
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Order Statistics
Exponential Race
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Exponential Distribution
At Least Two Successes
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Binomial Distribution
Seven in a Line, Not Adjacent
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Permutations
Bounded Integer Solutions
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Stars and Bars
Mixed Lower Bounds
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Stars and Bars
Non-Consecutive Selection
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Combinatorial Bijections
Binary Strings, Three Isolated Ones
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Combinatorial Bijections
Five-Digit Integers, No Repeats
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Permutations
Committee With At Least One of Two
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Combinations
Committee With Exactly One of Two
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Combinations
Teams of Three Sizes
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Multinomial Coefficients
Derangements of Five Objects
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Derangements
Alternating Circular Seating
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Circular Permutations
Each Face Exactly Three Times
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Multinomial Coefficients
Expected Absolute Difference of Two Dice
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Dice
Distinct Faces in Three Rolls
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Indicator Variables
Expected Empty Boxes
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Occupancy
Coupon Collector for a Four-Sided Die
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Coupon Collector
Waiting for HH
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Pattern Waiting Times
Reroll on an Eight-Sided Die
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Optimal Rerolling
Inversions in an Eight-Element Permutation
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Random Permutations
Adjacent Equal Pairs in Twelve Flips
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Indicator Variables
Collision Pairs Among Balls
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Indicator Variables
Second Moment of the Walk
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Random Walk
Expected Trials for Three Successes
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Negative Binomial
One Chance to Redraw a Uniform
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Optimal Stopping
Covariance of Two Linear Functions
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Covariance
Correlation Between a Variable and Its Sum
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Correlation
MLE of an Exponential Rate
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Maximum Likelihood
MLE Denominator for Normal Variance
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Maximum Likelihood
Beta-Bernoulli Posterior Update
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Bayesian Inference
CDF of the Maximum of Uniforms
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Order Statistics
Expected kth Order Statistic of Uniforms
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Order Statistics
Law of Total Expectation Application
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Conditional Expectation
A Quadratic Brownian Martingale
Give a simple martingale constructed from for standard Brownian motion.
Martingales
Log-Normality of Geometric Brownian Motion
For , what is the distribution of ?
Geometric Brownian Motion
Discounted GBM as a Martingale
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Geometric Brownian Motion
Covariance Stationarity of an AR(1) Process
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Time Series
Variance of a Stationary AR(1) Process
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Time Series
Autocorrelation of a Stationary AR(1) Process
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Time Series
Risk-Neutral Probability in a One-Period Tree
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Options · Binomial Pricing
Two-Asset Portfolio Volatility With Unequal Weights
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Portfolio Theory · Correlation
Minimum-Variance Hedge Ratio, Second Instance
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Hedging
Beta Hedge With Futures, Second Instance
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Hedging · Beta Hedge
Duration Plus Convexity, Second Instance
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Fixed Income
Bond Portfolio DV01
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Fixed Income
Implied FX Cross Rate
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FX
Kelly Fraction for an Even-Money Bet, Second Instance
An even-money bet wins with probability 0.60. What fraction of wealth does the Kelly criterion recommend wagering?
Kelly Criterion
Annualized Sharpe Ratio, Second Instance
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Risk · Sharpe Ratio
Two-Asset Portfolio Volatility, Uncorrelated Case
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Portfolio Theory · Correlation
Checking Put-Call Parity, Second Instance
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Options · Put-Call Parity
Inverse of a 2x2 Matrix
Find the inverse of the matrix .
Matrix Inverse
Orthogonal Projection of a Vector Onto a Line
Project orthogonally onto the line spanned by .
Projections
Positive Semidefiniteness of a Covariance Matrix
Why must every covariance matrix be positive semidefinite?
Covariance Matrices
Hessian of a Quadratic Form
For symmetric , find the Hessian of .
Matrix Calculus
Cobb-Douglas Maximization With Unequal Exponents
Maximize subject to .
Optimization
Maximizing a Geometric Mean Under a Weighted Constraint
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Optimization
Singular Values and A^T A
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Singular Value Decomposition
First Principal Component Direction
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Principal Component Analysis
Determinant of an Orthogonal Matrix
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Orthogonal Matrices
Convexity and the Hessian
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Convex Functions
Probability of No Hash Collisions
Ten keys are independently hashed uniformly into 100 buckets. What is the probability that no two collide?
Hashing
Streaming kth Largest Element
You need the kth largest element while streaming n values and k is small. What data structure naturally supports O(n log k) processing?
Heaps
Complexity of Floyd's Cycle Detection
What are the time and auxiliary-space complexities of Floyd's cycle detection algorithm?
Linked Lists
Why Random Swaps Do Not Uniformly Shuffle
Why is repeatedly swapping each array element with a uniformly random element from the entire array generally not a correct uniform shuffle?
Randomized Algorithms
Solving T(n) = 2T(n/2) + n
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Recurrences
Leaves and Internal Nodes in a Full Binary Tree
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Trees
Simulating a Five-Sided Die With Coin Flips
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Randomness
Finding a Majority Element
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Arrays
Fair Value of a Binary Payoff
An asset pays with probability and otherwise. Compute its fair value.
Fair Value
Selling Above Expected Value
An asset settles at with probability and otherwise. A dealer sells one unit at . Find the expected dealer P&L.
Fair Value
Buying a Coin-Flip Asset
An asset pays or , each with probability . A dealer buys one unit at . What is the expected P&L?
Fair Value
Edge Times Size
The expected terminal price is . A dealer sells units at . What is the expected P&L?
Fair Value
One Order, Asymmetric Arrival
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Order Flow
Losing to Informed Flow
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Adverse Selection
Expected P&L With No-Trade Intervals
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Adverse Selection
Break-Even Against Mixed Buyers
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Adverse Selection
Bid Against Informed Sellers
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Adverse Selection
Mark-to-Market After Uneven Fills
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P&L
Ending Inventory
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Inventory
Chained Inventory Updates
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Inventory
Average Acquisition Cost
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Inventory
Mark-to-Market on a Long
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P&L
Mark-to-Market on a Short
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P&L
Partial Fills on Both Sides
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P&L
Basis-Point Spread
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Quotes and Spreads
Quoting a Target Spread
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Quotes and Spreads
Uneven Flow Over a Session
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P&L
Expected P&L of Two Outcomes
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Fair Value
Break-Even Informed Fraction
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Adverse Selection
Spread Revenue Net of Adverse Selection
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Adverse Selection
Inventory-Adjusted Reservation Price
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Inventory Skew
Reservation Price Across Inventories
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Inventory Skew
Quoting Around a Reservation Price
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Inventory Skew
Skewing a Quote
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Inventory Skew
Choosing a Bid by Fill Probability
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Quote Optimization
Choosing an Ask by Fill Probability
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Quote Optimization
Expected P&L With Execution Risk
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Quote Optimization
Twelve Coins Lower Bound
Twelve coins include exactly one counterfeit, which may be heavier or lighter. Using a balance scale, what is the information-theoretic lower bound on the number of weighings needed?
Weighing
Eighty-One Coins, One Light
Eighty-one identical-looking coins include one lighter counterfeit. What is the minimum number of balance weighings that guarantees finding it?
Weighing
Twenty-Seven Coins, One Heavy
Twenty-seven identical-looking coins include one heavier counterfeit. What is the minimum number of balance weighings that guarantees identifying it?
Weighing
Sixteen Bottles, One Round
One of bottles is poisoned; poison kills exactly hours after drinking. With one -hour round of parallel tests, how many mice are needed to identify the poisoned bottle?
Information
One Hundred Lockers
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Number Theory
Mutilated Chessboard
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Invariants
Matching Socks
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Pigeonhole
Shared Birth Month
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Pigeonhole
Overlapping Clock Hands
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Clocks
Squares in a Grid
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Counting
Bridge and Flashlight
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Optimization Puzzles
Twenty-Five Horses
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Optimization Puzzles
Two Eggs, Thirty-Six Floors
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Optimization Puzzles
Two Black, Two White Hats
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Logic Puzzles
Painted 4x4x4 Cube
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Counting
Party Handshakes
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One Liter From 3 and 5
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Jug Puzzles
Three Pizza Cuts
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Geometry
A Slow Clock
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Clocks
Unpainted Cubes in 3x3x3
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Counting
Union of Independent Events
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Events
Six Given Even
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Conditional Probability
Expected Tosses to First Head
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Geometric Distribution
First Six on the Third Roll
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Geometric Distribution
Different Colours
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Urns
Two Uniforms Above One
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Geometric Probability
Positive Test, Rare Disease
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Bayes
Binary Strings With Two Ones
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Combinations
Stars and Bars for Seven
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Stars and Bars
Arrangements of LEVEL
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Multinomial
Four-Digit PINs
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Product Rule
Four-Card Hands
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Combinations
Binomial Mean and Variance
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Binomial
Poisson Zero
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Poisson
Normal Below Its Mean
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Normal
Variance of a Difference
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Variance
Correlation From Covariance
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Correlation
997 Times 1003
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Mental Math
125 Times 64
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Mental Math
One Seventh to Three Decimals
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Mental Math
Up 20 Then Down 20
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Mental Math
Difference of Squares
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Mental Math
Forward Payoff
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Forwards
Forward Price With Continuous Rates
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Forwards
Call Price From Parity
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Put-Call Parity
Neutralizing Delta
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Greeks
One-Day 95% VaR
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Value at Risk
Adjacent Aces
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Cards
No Empty Box
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Occupancy
Even Grid Sums
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Parity
No Couples Adjacent
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Inclusion-Exclusion
Average of Three Uniforms
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Irwin-Hall Distribution
Minimum of Three Dice
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Order Statistics
MLE for Uniform Support
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Estimation
First Ace Position
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Cards
Fruit Basket Depletion
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Sequential Sampling
Racing to Heads
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Geometric Distribution
Tetrahedral Dice Duel
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Recursive Games
Dice Streak Threshold
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Optimal Stopping
Gambler's Ruin Odds
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Gambler's Ruin
Pattern Waiting Times
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Pattern Waiting Times
Mayor's Rope Cut
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Geometric Probability
Two Rerolls Allowed
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Dynamic Programming
Order Statistic Expectation
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Conditional Expectation
Median of Three Uniforms
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Order Statistics
Uniform Arrival Time
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Poisson Process
Total Variance Split
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Law of Total Variance
Reciprocal Jensen Gap
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Jensen
Empty Seats Occupancy
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Indicators
Adverse Selection Quotes
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Market Making · Adverse Selection
Kelly Bet Sizing
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Betting · Kelly Criterion
Even Coordinate in Stars and Bars
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Integer Solutions
Non-Attacking Rooks
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Combinatorial Probability
Waiting for HTH
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Pattern Waiting Times
Records in a Random Permutation
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Two Uniforms Smaller Than a Third
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Continuous Probability
Maximum of Two Exponentials
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Exponential Distribution
Conditional Poisson Arrival Locations
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Poisson Process
Brownian Motion Exit Probability
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Brownian Motion
Exponential Brownian Martingale
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Martingales
Minimum-Variance Portfolio Weight
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Triangular FX Arbitrage
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FX
Kelly Sizing With Non-Even Odds
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Kelly Criterion
Two Fragile Objects, One Hundred Floors
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Search Strategy
Survivor of the Josephus Circle
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Recursion
Probability an Item Is Kept in Reservoir Sampling
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Random Sampling
Optimization Behind the First Principal Component
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PCA
Meaning of Cointegration
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Exactly One Birthday Pair Among Four
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Birthday Problem
Pairing Ten People
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Perfect Matchings
No Room Left Empty
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Inclusion-Exclusion
Lattice Paths Below the Diagonal
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Lattice Paths
Six People, Four Rooms, None Empty
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Inclusion-Exclusion
Paying to Reroll a Ten-Sided Die
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Optimal Rerolling
Records Among Ten Values
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Indicator Variables
Law of Total Variance Application
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Conditional Variance
Expected Exit Time of Brownian Motion
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Brownian Motion
Uniform Order Statistics From a Poisson Process
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Poisson Process
General Two-State Stationary Distribution
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Markov Chains
Expected Absorption Time in Gambler's Ruin
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Random Walks
Minimum-Variance Weight, Second Instance
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Optimization
Kelly Fraction With Net Odds, Second Instance
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Kelly Criterion
Projection Matrix Onto a Column Space
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Projections
Amortized Complexity of Union-Find
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Data Structures
Final Inclusion Probability in k-Item Reservoir Sampling
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Random Sampling
Expected P&L and Inventory Drift
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Order Flow
Minimum Spread Against Information
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Adverse Selection
Asymmetric Flow and Information
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Adverse Selection
Break-Even Ask
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Adverse Selection
Break-Even Bid
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Adverse Selection
Losing on One Side Only
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Adverse Selection
Covered Call Payoff in Two States
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Hedging
Variance of Mark-to-Market P&L
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Risk
Mean and Variance of Independent Trades
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Risk
Bid Selection With Conditional Values
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Quote Optimization
Smallest Safe Half-Spread
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Adverse Selection
Mean-Variance Trade Choice
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Risk
Asymmetric Price Impact
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Adverse Selection
Ask Selection With Conditional Values
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Quote Optimization
Interval P&L With Unequal Edges
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Adverse Selection
Bookkeeping a Trading Sequence
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P&L
One Hundred Prisoners and Boxes
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Permutations
The Last Airplane Seat
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Probability Puzzles
One Thousand Bottles
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Information
Toggling the Divisors of 60
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Number Theory
Taking 1 to 3 Stones From 21
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Games
Taking 1 to 4 Stones From 100
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Games
Diagonals of a 20-gon
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Counting
Necklace With One Red Bead
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Counting
Chords of Ten Points
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Geometry
Removing Opposite Colours
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Invariants
Sum 8 Given a Six
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Conditional Probability
Expected Position of the First Ace
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Cards
Two Heads Given at Least One
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Conditional Probability
Sum Above One Given a Large X
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Geometric Probability
Round Table, Two Together
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Circular Arrangements
Onto Functions to Two Values
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Functions
Bounded Stars and Bars
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Stars and Bars
Exponential Wait Over Ten Minutes
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Exponential Waiting Times
Variance of a Sample Mean
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Sampling
Random Walk Back at Zero
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Random Walks
999 Squared
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Delta-Gamma Approximation
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Greeks
Combining Correlated Positions
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Portfolio Risk
Bull Call Spread
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Option Strategies
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