Linearity of Expectation

The expectation of a sum is the sum of the expectations — always.

What is it?

For any random variables, , whether or not and are independent.

Why is it useful?

It is the single most used shortcut in interview expected-value questions and avoids computing joint distributions.

When should you think of it?

Think of it whenever the quantity is a sum of simpler pieces, even strongly dependent ones.

Think of this method when…

  • The target is a total, sum or count
  • Pieces are dependent (drawing without replacement, shared resources)
  • Each piece has an easy expectation by itself
  • You feel tempted to enumerate all outcomes

Core idea

Break the quantity into additive parts, take each part's expectation separately, and add.

Step-by-step playbook

  1. 1Express the target as .
  2. 2Compute each , using symmetry if they match.
  3. 3Add them up; do not worry about dependence.

Worked example

Worked example

Two cards are drawn without replacement from a standard deck with ranks A = 1 up to K = 13. What is the expected sum of the ranks?

  1. 1

    Each card, viewed alone, is uniform over the deck, so its expected rank is .

  2. 2

    The draws are dependent, but linearity does not care.

  3. Answer:

Common mistakes

  • Believing independence is required.
  • Applying linearity to products: in general.
  • Applying it to nonlinear functions like or .

Would you use this method?

Is when ?

Practice this method

37 QuantSolve questions are tagged with this method.

Practice this method

Related lessons & methods